HRC prices have plunged from their late 2023 highs to ~$741/MT, representing a 22.3% Y-o-Y decline. This drop is attributed to weak demand and an oversupply driven by increased imports, particularly from South Korea and Mexico. To address the issue of tariff evasion through Mexico, the US government has refined Section 232 regulations on Mexican steel imports. A 25% tariff will apply to Mexican exporters unless the steel is ‘melted and poured’ within USMCA countries.

HRC prices are currently ~€626/MT, reflecting a 7.3% Y-o-Y decrease. The market anticipates a slight short-term price increase due to production cuts at major mills. However, this rise is expected to be tempered by seasonal declines as the year progresses. EU steel imports rose by 5.5% Y-o-Y, driven mainly by APAC countries (excl. China and South Korea). In May’24, the European Commission announced a 15% quarterly cap on HRC imports, expected to reduce EU market supplies, particularly affecting Vietnamese steelmakers.

HRC prices have declined by 3.8% Y-o-Y to ~¥3,711/MT, driven by persistently weak demand despite high raw material costs. Government initiatives aimed at stimulating the real estate sector have had little effect on steel spot prices, causing only minor fluctuations in steel futures. Market volatility is anticipated due to potential policy announcements at the upcoming Third Plenum, where the Chinese government is expected to update long-term goals that could impact real estate and, consequently, steel demand.